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IPCC AR4 Working Group 1 Summary for Policymakers, page 12
"The equilibrium climate sensitivity is a measure of the climate system response to sustained radiative forcing. It is not a projection but is defined as the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values."
Alternative estimate for climate sensitivity
In his paper "Where should humanity aim?" James Hansen and co-authors have estimated that equilibrium climate sensitivity is 6°C, double the IPCC estimate.
The following papers are relevant to the question of what is the appropriate value for the Earth's climate sensitivity:
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